Chapter 27 The Speech of the Delicious Wind Goose

Annan turned his attention back to the live broadcast of Delicious Wind Goose.

Obviously... just after one night, the identities of the three of them have been completely exposed.

Although he has deduced by reasoning, the key to this game is "incitement".

In other words, it is dragging people into the water.

Then their victory condition is no longer to hide their identities... but to persuade others to start killing people through various means and words.

But the core difficulty of this game is not in words.

- but in "time".

In each stage, there is less than five minutes of thinking time. It is impossible for ritual participants of average quality to make immediate decisions in each round - they must have some kind of "inertia".

That is, almost everyone will adopt the blunt reaction strategy of "decision remains unchanged until a certain point is not reached".

At the same time, because of the lack of public communication time, it is almost impossible to obtain the right to speak by "using logically sound reasoning to convince others".

Under such conditions, people tend to make decisions instinctively.

Conversely, just make them feel a sense of urgency.

The [switch] that decides everything will be pressed.

Annan narrowed his eyes slightly.

Whether it is discussing the possibility of the other party's behavior at the logical level, or thinking about the rationality of the other party's behavior at the human level, there will be mistakes and omissions. If you want to grasp the behavior pattern of others in advance, you must first determine the behavior strategy of the other party.

If you don't know what the other person wants, it's impossible to guess what the other person wants to do.

"...I just don't know, when the delicious wind goose will be able to notice this."

The biggest difference between this game and the board game is that it actually causes death.

Although it's just a nightmare.

But the nightmare is an abstraction of the historical record - it must have something different from reality, yet its archetypal story must have happened in reality at least once.

"—Once the success or failure of the game will determine their own life and death, everyone will adopt a relatively safe and conservative strategy when they are calm.

"—unless they lose their minds first."

Longjing Tea wrote quickly in the barrage.

Although the success or failure of this game has nothing to do with identity exposure or not. But their conversations with each other on the first night drastically reduced the credibility of their words.

In the case of not knowing who to vote for, passers-by will inevitably vote out the three of them first.

Because they happen to be three.

The game lasted for three days and four nights in total, excluding the first day, when nothing could be done, it was exactly three rounds. This means that the players can throw exactly and only three people.

This is the critical equilibrium point of a dominant strategy.

As long as even four people contact each other on the first day, this balance can be upset. Since they can only throw three, there is a chance that one will kill two without being thrown anyway.

"-After all, you only have three people to enter the game, and you didn't talk to passers-by on the first day. This directly led to you being isolated on the second day. The most correct way is to talk to strangers in groups on the first day. ... the content is not important, the point is to 'pull gangs' to divide them and make them suspicious of each other."

Longjing tea, which has quickly mastered the rules, quickly teaches delicious wind goose.

It's a pity that only Longjing Tea started the live broadcast, otherwise Longjing Tea felt that he could even operate the third-line operation and directly control them to complete the game.

However, considering that only Delicious Feng Goose can see his words, it is difficult for them to have a chance to communicate... Even if Longjing Tea has guessed all the rules and tactics, he still cannot guarantee victory.

But Delicious Wind Goose's gaze has settled down.

He has understood.

He knew what he had done wrong...

- and try to make up for it.

Soon, it was Delicious Feng Goose's turn to speak.

Dove's previous remarks only muddy the water temporarily. But if he can't make any twisting speech,

The final answer was still that the three of them were thrown out.

He was silent for a moment.

replied slowly:

"—I'm not a civilian.

"Claiming me as a civilian in the first round was to protect civilians on the field from being killed.

"And my true identity...is an idol wizard."

After the delicious wind goose said these words, he said calmly: "If you want to vote me out now, but that's meaningless. The people behind don't need to speak, because the killer has now won. If you don't believe it , just listen to my analysis-"

He could almost predict the surprised expressions on the other people's faces.

"If I jump out this round, then I will definitely use my skills tonight, and if I can't defend, I will be killed immediately; and if I don't jump out for a while, then I will definitely be voted out tomorrow.

"So for me, as long as I don't jump out, I'm definitely going to die. That's why I reveal my identity.

"My only survival condition is that you choose not to vote me out for the time being, and I will kill people and switch camps as soon as the night falls. Even if I'm temporarily 'dead', as long as the camp I belong to wins, I don't have to die. .

"Why do I say the killer has won?

"The condition is very simple. As long as the person who killed me tonight is not the same person who killed me yesterday... In that case, two people will reach the victory condition of 'killing two people' on the third day. You can only choose to vote for the person I highlighted.

"Then even if the number of murderers does not increase, there will definitely be a winner alive to enter the fourth day. Taking this into account, the wicked side's winning rate is already greater than 50% - so if you want to switch camps in time, you can only enter the fourth day. On the second night, he shot and got the head.

"In this way, even on the craziest third night, you can maintain a defensive state and achieve the final victory. As long as no two people kill one person at the same time, as long as the 'winner' successfully hides his identity, it is the condition for victory - at that time half of the people They have killed people, and the skills of edicts and prophets are no longer effective, because what they want to do is no longer to protect themselves, but to hide the 'winner'."

Delicious Wind Goose speaks demonic inferences in a calm voice and methodically.

no doubt.

- He is bullshitting.

Delicious Wind Goose doesn't know whether the eliminated person will die immediately or after the final settlement; because "at least one person survives" is their dungeon clearance condition as a player, and other people's conditions are not necessarily this.

He was just taking a gamble.

If you sit still, you will die.

But if the situation is turbulent smoothly, the result will be uncertain.

"What if the winner is killed by mistake on the third night? It's very simple, as long as everyone shoots and kills on the third night. If the person who gets the kill on the second day chooses to defend, on the third day There is also the possibility of being attacked and killed by multiple people at the same time.

"...then the defense and offense have the same winning percentage on day three."

- Of course, this is also nonsense.

There is no doubt that if the delicious wind goose is really a prophet wizard, then killing in the second day and defending in the third day is the strategy with the highest probability of winning.

But hearing this...who cares about this kind of detail?

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