Chapter 1094 Provocation
Indeed, Black Butterfly's chances of winning are very slim.
In the game of neurasthenia, the advantage of memory is the most intuitive advantage, and in this respect... Black Butterfly cannot be compared with Feng Bujue.
However, there is another factor that can determine the outcome, and that is... luck.
In the previous round, although Feng Bujue scored 24 points, as he said, based on his "absolute memory", such a score is not too exaggerated from the perspective of probability.
Apart from the 9 points that must be won, the remaining points can be regarded as a case of "five successful flips in six flips with gradually decreasing probabilities", and this "gradually decreasing probability" is about 20% to 7%, and then stopped.
In this way, what he did in this round... should be attributed to the category of "not bad luck".
There is nothing special about this, so this is not "gambling", but just a "game", which is considered by Brother Jue to be a "boring" game.
In addition, when this round ended, his seemingly "good" luck had actually changed direction...
Because the cards that Feng Bujue turned over in the last three hands were all "cards with a suit that had been revealed"; that is, when he finally changed hands, the number of "known two-phase cards" on the table increased from three pairs to six pairs.
In addition, the number of unknown cards on the table has decreased again... When the opponent turns over unknown cards now, the probability of turning over a scoreable card has increased to more than 15% again.
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Round 11, Black Butterfly's turn to turn over.
After Brother Jue cleaned up the table, the number of known cards left was not much, so Black Butterfly was more confident about the suits of those cards.
In the first hand, she still turned over a new card at her own pace at a position close to the known cards.
As a result, this was a "two-phase card that has been revealed", that is, a "scoreable card".
Black Butterfly did not have the spare energy of Feng Bujue's "I clearly remember it, but I can save it for later", she would definitely go for the points as soon as there was a chance to score.
Therefore. She immediately turned back to find the other two pairs of cards that had just been turned over... and succeeded.
"This lady gets three points." The referee's announcement came immediately, "You can continue to turn over cards."
The next hand, the situation was still the same...
Black Butterfly turned over another score card, and she quickly converted it into points.
The next hand. Still the same...
In this way, Black Butterfly calmly tied the score, and... due to the reduction in the number of cards, with only three pairs of known cards, her probability of turning over a score card in the next hand is higher than 7%.
"Heh... how is it?" At this time. Black Butterfly smiled and said to Brother Jue, "I am not completely without a chance, am I?"
"Humph... I was mentally prepared for this kind of luck gap before the duel began." Feng Bujue replied calmly, "Anyway... you can turn over as many as you want before reaching 'that score'."
"That score?" Black Butterfly thought for two seconds after hearing this, and then continued, "Oh~ you mean... 33 points?"
Black Butterfly undoubtedly studied the rules of the game carefully before the duel began, so she knew that 33 points was a very critical score.
According to the rules. After both sides reveal a total of "Twenty-five Phases", the player can end the game by turning over two "Pure Land of Bliss" and enter the settlement stage.
Then, leaving aside the kind of victory or defeat with a huge gap, take the game where both sides have a certain score as an example... Twenty-five Phases can be divided into twelve to thirteen, or eleven to fourteen.
In the case of twelve to thirteen, the score ratio is 36 to 39. At this time, the lagging party turns over the Pure Land of Bliss, plus an extra 10 points. 46 to 39, you can turn defeat into victory.
In the case of eleven to fourteen, the score ratio is 33 to 42. At this time, the lagging party turns over the Pure Land of Bliss, plus an extra 10 points, 43 to 42, and also turns defeat into victory.
In other words, in this game, if the losing party wants to turn the game around, there is a prerequisite, that is, at least get the "Eleven Phases", which meets the minimum conditions for a turnaround.
Theoretically, the most ideal situation is: in the round where twenty-four phases have been revealed on the table, it is the turn of the lagging party to turn over the cards. At the moment when he/she turns over the twenty-fifth phase, he/she just has 33 points, and then... he/she turns over the "Pure Land of Bliss" again to end the game.
For the lagging party, this is the fastest and best turnaround mode. If it continues to drag on... the score gap may gradually widen, because when there are not many unknown cards left on the table, the probability of turning over a scoreable card will greatly increase, and the probability of turning over two "one-phase clear" cards in a row is not impossible. At that time, the party with a stronger memory and fewer mistakes will definitely have a higher scoring rate than the opponent.
"Since you know." Feng Bujue's tone was still relaxed. It was normal for the opponent to know the meaning of this number anyway, so there was no need to be amazed. "Then please work hard in this direction."
"Hehe... I can do it without you telling me." Black Butterfly responded and continued to flip cards...
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By the end of the eleventh round, the score comparison between the two sides was 24 to 30, with Black Butterfly leading.
After that conversation, Black Butterfly flipped out two more scoring cards, consuming the two-phase cards in the known cards to only one pair.
Then, in the last three hands of cards... she turned out two "zero-phase cards" in a row, that is, a card with no known suit, and... she also turned out a second "zero-phase card" Pure Land of Bliss".
Therefore, when the round ends, there are only two known pairs left on the table, and... the positions of the two "Pure Lands" are also clear.
At present, the total score of the two people is 54 points, that is, the "Eighteen Signs" have been revealed, and the number of cards left on the table is 48; among them, 20 are known cards, including 2 Infernal Hell, 2 Pure Land, It consists of 4 cards with "both phases are clear" and 12 cards with "one phase is clear".
There are 28 unknown cards in total, namely 2 Infernal Affairs cards and 26 phase cards.
In other words, at the beginning of the twelfth round, the probability that Feng Bujue could find a scoreable card among the unknown cards was 2/28, which was basically the same as the probability that he failed in the previous round. , only about 7%...
Seeing this, some people will definitely say, can't he just turn over the unknown cards? Wouldn't it be enough to turn over three known cards and then throw the same situation to the opponent?
The answer is - yes, but... it doesn't solve the problem.
According to the "Flop Rules" of [Triple Nervous Breakdown]. Players must reveal at least one unknown card in three consecutive rounds, otherwise they will be penalized five points.
The purpose of this rule is to prevent players from consuming their chances of turning over cards that have already appeared before. As for why it is "three consecutive rounds". That is naturally considering that some people will "turn over three known cards and score no points" due to misremembering the cards; in this case, those who fail to attack for two consecutive rounds will have to bear the responsibility for the third time. The risk of penalty points...
Based on the example at hand, if Feng Bujue chooses to turn over three known cards in this round to consume his right to turn over, then it will be Black Butterfly's turn. The other party can also do the same thing... Anyway, Black Butterfly doesn't care. As the party with relatively weak memory ability, she is very happy to see both parties constantly turning out old cards to help her consolidate her memory.
Besides, she is the "late attacker". In a situation where no one is willing to reveal a new card, the second attacker at least has a "one card" advantage, because the first attacker will definitely reveal one more new card than the opponent. Card.
Of course, Feng Bujue was not the kind of person who would deliberately turn over known cards to defend.
Real gamblers and scoundrels know...you can't win that way.
For example, the game where Brother Jue cheated Jin Mianchou in the number-guessing game... What if he was thinking about "What if I only guessed three or four numbers?" or "The opponent really made it to the seventh round." What should I do?" Then he will retreat and avoid...and in the end, he will lose.
The devil at the gambling table will not respond to the appeals of the weak. On the contrary, they will devour those people...
Giving in, avoiding, giving up thinking and turning to inner prayer and supplication will only lead to failure and destruction.
Those who can win must be convinced at that moment - "I will definitely be able to guess more than 5 numbers." If you fail to guess, you may die, but dying... doesn't matter.
Only this kind of will can guide "luck" and summon "victory".
…………
"Ah...as expected..."
Round 12, first hand. The unknown card that Feng Bujue turned over... was a "One Phase Ming".
At this moment, he has two options: The first is a safer approach - giving up continuing to turn over the cards and turning over the two known cards. End your round. In this way, only one known pair is added to the opponent and one unknown card is reduced. When Black Butterfly attacks, the probability of turning over a scoreable card in the first hand is three-in-twenty-seven, about an 11% chance.
Another more risky approach is to turn over another unknown card. If the card turned up in the second hand is the same as the suit in the first hand. He can score.
So... what's the success rate of doing this? What about the risk of failure?
It can be calculated from the known cards that among the 27 unknown cards at this moment, 22 are pairs, that is, cards with "one phase already known", 3 cards with "two phases already known", and 2 Zhang is the hell card.
If Feng Bujue wants to score, he must turn over the "Heel Guangping Xiang" he turned out first in this round, and the probability of it is only about 3%; if he cannot turn over, he faces three possibilities... …
First, he has an 81% chance of turning over a "clear" card, and then gives the opponent a known pair, which increases the opponent's probability of turning over a scoreable card the next time he turns over to more than 15%.
Second, he has a 7% chance of turning over one of the other two "two-phased" cards, giving the opponent a direct 100% chance to score in the next round.
Third, with the same 7% chance, he will turn over the hell card, and this... is the best result. In this way, the opponent's probability of drawing a scoreable card will rise to 11.5%, which is not a much increase.
To sum up, no matter how you look at it, it is better to choose a safe approach here.
But……
"If this trend continues, if I turn over another card, 80% of the time it will be..." Feng Bujue muttered as he turned over the second unknown card.
As a result, he turned over a "two things are clear" card.
Because he has turned over the cards twice this round and the suits are different, it is impossible to score. Therefore, the piece he turned out was basically the opponent's score.
"Hmm... It seems that the luck is completely on your side." Feng Bujue saw the worst outcome, but he looked nonchalant, "I guess you will get more than 6 points in the next round."
As he said this, he turned over the third card before the other party responded.
What's incredible is that...he actually turned over another unknown card; this time, he turned out "One-phase Ming", so there was another pair of Ming pairs on the table.
"What on earth does this guy want to do..." Black Butterfly couldn't understand, and she thought to herself, "I can understand it second-hand... A man like him, who is so arrogant and narcissistic, may indeed... This is a time when I try to take chances; but in the third move... when it is impossible to score and it will almost certainly give me more advantages, he still turns over unknown cards? "
"Please..." The next second, Feng Bujue's voice interrupted Black Butterfly's thoughts, "I know what you are thinking... Haha... don't hesitate about things you can't understand. You It's better to get the points you deserve before your memory becomes blurry. If you make a mistake here... then it will be too easy for me to win." (To be continued.)