Chapter 1083 Number Guessing Contest (Secondary 2)

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"Mr. Jing?" Feng Bujue immediately understood the meaning of the title, "Oh...it's Hua Lian (in Peking Opera, "Jing" is usually called Hua Lian, Zheng Jing, Fu Jing, and Wu Jing correspond to big Hua Lian, Er Hua Lian, and Wu Hua Lian. /武二花)?”

"Don't be poor like me." Mr. Jing was a little surprised that Brother Jue got the meaning of his title, but he had no intention of continuing to talk to him about this issue. "What do you call me? Crow Mouth?"

"Okay." Feng Bujue smiled openly, "Just call me 'Crow Mouth'."

"Hmph..." Mr. Jing snorted coldly, "Then, I will start asking questions now, crow's mouth."

As he spoke, he picked up the paper and pen in front of him.

"Please." Feng Bujue was holding a cup of drink and resting one elbow on the table. (The height of the cart is about 1.25 meters. Adults with an average height can use their elbows to rest on the table as long as they lean forward. Take a break), responded very easily.

…………

According to the rules, the number guessing game is divided into two rounds. In the first round, the party that proposes the challenge calls the bet and guesses the solution, while the party that accepts the challenge is responsible for setting the question.

In each round, there are "two parts" that need to be called:

The first part - the guessing party "declares" and guesses the correct answer within "a few rounds", and then the question-producing party makes a bet according to the number of rounds given by the other party, and the minimum bet must not be lower than this time 1% of its total gold holdings at the start of the duel; the bet after this call is fixed, and the guessing party cannot make further bets and must follow up.

For example...for example, the guesser declares that he can guess the answer "within five rounds." Obviously, the probability of such a thing is almost zero; at this time, the question maker will definitely call the maximum bet he can call, and the challenger must also follow up (if the money is not as much as the other party, refer to what the organizer said Rule two, bet everything and continue the duel).

Then, when this duel is "completely over". Based on the final number of rounds, both parties will settle the fee.

Of course. The above situation is unlikely to occur...

Because the betting in "this part", that is, the "betting on the round" part, generally gives money to the guessing party.

As long as the guessing party says an exaggerated number of "one hundred rounds" or even "one thousand rounds" when announcing, it is basically a guaranteed win. That's why this part of the bet will be called by the question maker...when faced with that kind of number, the question maker will definitely only call the lowest bet he can.

In other words, after the victory or defeat of this game. As long as the guessing party does not lose everything during the duel and loses the qualification, then at the time of settlement, it is basically safe to get back a small amount of money from the party that gave the question.

This setting is mainly set up considering that the guessing party is obviously at a disadvantage in the duel.

Next, let’s look at the call notes for “Second Part”:

This part is repeated during the duel...that is, every round, the guessing party must make a bet. Similarly...the amount of each bet cannot be less than 1% of its upper limit of holdings. ; And the question is given. There are two options: first, follow the bet; second, surrender.

Follow the bet. Naturally, it is to let the game continue; and "surrender" means that the question maker admits defeat. After it pays the corresponding fine, the bureau comes to an end.

If the rule of "betting on rounds" is to protect the guesser, then the rule of "surrender" is naturally to protect the person who asks the question.

Let's give an example... If there is no "surrender" option, then all guessers can use a very simple tactic to ensure that they win money, that is - starting from the first round, only bet every round. Bet the minimum amount, and then bet all your remaining money on the round when you are guaranteed to guess correctly.

With this tactic, as long as the answer can be guessed within fifty rounds. The guesser will be invincible; this does not include the amount of "bet rounds" before the start of each round.

Therefore, there is the "surrender" setting.

Of course. "Surrender" is also limited, otherwise the question maker can take advantage of this to achieve a guaranteed win... For example, if the game suddenly surrenders after ten to twenty rounds, it will be over soon.

To prevent this from happening, "surrender fines" were introduced.

In this number-guessing showdown, there are two formulas for calculating the surrender penalty——

The first type is applicable to the situation of surrender within the first twenty rounds. The formula is: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel * (50 + the number of completed rounds)% + the opponent's bet amount in this round 10% + base penalty.

The second type is the formula used from the 21st round: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel* (50-number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round + Base Penalty.

The so-called "basic penalty" is divided according to the current number of rounds. The basic penalty for surrendering within rounds 1-10 is 5% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel. The basic penalty for surrendering within rounds 11-20 is At the beginning of the duel, 10% of the amount held by the opponent will rise to 20% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel in rounds 21-30... And starting from the 31st round, the basic penalty will directly return to zero.

Let me give you another example... In a match, both sides held $100,000 at the beginning. The person who guessed the answer bet 1% in each round. After 30 rounds, he lost a total of $30,000. Then, in the 31st round, he was sure to win, so he bet all the remaining $70,000.

Seeing this, the questioner chose to surrender... At this time, the fine the questioner needs to pay is 10% of the $100,000 multiplied by 20 (50-30)%, which is $2,000... plus 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round, which is $7,000... plus the basic fine of zero, a total of $9,000.

Although it is a one-time spit out of 9,000, it is much better than 70,000.

In short, when the questioner chooses to surrender, the match is declared over. Let's take the above example again. The result is that the questioner won $21,000 from the person who guessed the answer.

After completing this part of the settlement, both parties will settle the "number of bets". Assume that the guesser declared "within 100 rounds" before, and the questioner called the lowest bet of 1,000 US dollars, then... the questioner will give the guesser another 1,000 US dollars, and finally win 20,000.

The above is the general plot of the questioner choosing the time to surrender through the "guesser raising the bet" under "general circumstances".

So... under the same conditions. What if the questioner chooses the "quit while you're ahead" tactic?

I will not list the detailed calculation process here. Let's just look at the results... Let's deduce it based on the conditions that both parties have 100,000 US dollars and the guesser bets 1,000 each time-

If the questioner surrenders in the first round (note that the extra percentage of the first round is 50+0, not 50+1), he loses 10,100, and the second round is 10,200, and then increases by 100 US dollars every round until the tenth round.

In other words. If the questioner surrenders in any of the first ten rounds, he will lose money.

Starting from the eleventh round, due to the increase in the basic penalty, the penalty for surrendering in this round jumped to 16,100, and 100 was added for each round thereafter; thus, in the eighteenth round, the question setter would have the opportunity to "quit while he was ahead", and if he surrendered in this round, the penalty would be 16,800. The amount earned in the previous seventeen rounds was 17,000, so he earned 200, but... don't forget the money from the "betting round". If you count that, it's still a loss... so you have to wait for another round, until the nineteenth round. Earn 18,000, penalty 16,900 + betting round 1,000, then you barely earned 100...

Therefore, in the first twenty rounds, if you want to "win for sure", you only have two chances, that is, surrender in the nineteenth round and the twentieth round. According to the formula, the former can earn 100, and the latter can earn 1,000...

But... you rarely get to be a question setter. Is it enough to earn a thousand? Don't forget that this game is a "first come, first served" game. It doesn't mean that you can get out of the game without losing money.

So, let's look at the situation at the beginning of the 21st round...

Starting from this round, the formula has changed, but the basic penalty has increased again. The penalty for surrendering in the 21st round is 23,100, and it will decrease by 100 every round thereafter; obviously... starting from this round, the surrender mechanism begins to tend to protect the questioner. Because after 20 rounds, the probability of the guesser guessing the answer has become higher and higher.

In this way, if the 1,000 in the gambling round is included, the "25th round" will be a watershed; the penalty for this round is 22,700, plus the 1,000 in the gambling round, it is 23,700, but the money won by the questioner... is 24,000; of course, this is only 300, so this is not the point...

The point is that starting from this round, the winning amount of the questioner who suddenly surrenders will increase by 1,100 US dollars every round.

After six rounds, in the 31st round, the "basic penalty" returns to zero, and the questioner suddenly has an extra 20,000. In this round, if the guesser does not raise the bet, the penalty for the questioner to surrender directly is only 2,100 US dollars, and he has won 30,000 at this moment. Even if the money from the bet round is removed, the net profit is 26,900...

In summary, the key confrontation of this number guessing game is between the 25th and 30th rounds...If the guesser cannot guess the correct answer before the 31st round, then the questioner can earn 29% of your chips by surrendering immediately. Even if you guess it in the 31st round, you can only recover about 10% of the loss.

Of course, although I said a lot, it is just theory.

In an actual duel, all kinds of situations may occur...

Maybe someone can guess the answer within 25 rounds; maybe someone can raise the stakes to put pressure without guessing; maybe someone will forcefully raise the stakes when they think they have guessed correctly or when they are about to finish 30 rounds, but the other party will see through and follow up...

On the gambling table, fraud, calculation, performance, and seeing through...anything can happen.

In the world of gambling, probability will not respect you, and the god of luck does not exist.

The luck gained by praying 10,000 times is not as good as the skills achieved by practicing 10,000 times.

The weak will be defeated, swallowed up, crushed... and will not get any sympathy.

Winning and surviving...is the only justice in this world.

…………

One minute later, Mr. Jing had written six numbers on the paper in front of him.

Then, he folded the paper, carefully protected it with his palm, and handed it to the man in suit and sunglasses next to the cart.

The latter also took the paper very carefully, turned around, blocked Feng Bujue's sight with his broad back, and then unfolded the paper and looked at the numbers on it.

Two seconds later, the man in suit and sunglasses folded the paper again and put it in his shirt pocket.

He turned around, stood facing the table again, and then said to Mr. Jing: "Once the numbers are determined, they cannot be changed, so I need to confirm with you, the six numbers just now... Is it okay?"

"Yes." Mr. Jing replied firmly, "I'm sure."

"Yeah." The man in the suit and sunglasses nodded, "You have all read the rules, but I still want to emphasize a few points..." He paused for half a second and continued, "First, if you are caught cheating, you will be immediately judged as losing, and all the money belongs to the other party." As he said, he stretched out his hand and gestured to a small device on the table, "Secondly, this timer on the table is similar to the one used in chess games, recording the time taken by both sides; the total time taken by the guesser is forty-five minutes minutes. If the answer is still not guessed within this time, then no matter which round it is, how much money both sides have, and how much money is the ‘bet round’… the guesser is considered ‘completely defeated’, and all the money held by the loser will belong to the other party. ” He paused and said, “In addition, the time for the guesser to call, the time for the questioner to follow up, and the time for the questioner to give feedback on the guesser’s answer are all calculated separately - calling and following must be completed within one minute, and the feedback time is only thirty seconds; for those who violate the rules, the first time, they will be fined 1% of the upper limit of the money held at the beginning of the game, the second time is 2%, and so on…”

The rules emphasized by the man in the suit are indeed very important. The punishment for cheating goes without saying… As for the situation of “malicious delay of time”, the organizer has naturally calculated it when designing the game. Under the high cost, the ugly and lack of technical content of “delaying time” is basically unlikely to appear.

In this way, the rhythm of the game can be kept compact and create considerable pressure…

And the various performances of the “guests” under pressure are exactly what the organizer wants to see.

"Ah~ah~I know, can we start?" Feng Bujue seemed a little impatient after hearing what the man in the suit said.

The man in the suit did not answer him, but looked at both sides of the duel expressionlessly, and raised his hand to the timer.

After confirming the reactions of Brother Jue and Mr. Jing, the man in the suit said: "Since both sides have no objection, then... the duel begins!" (To be continued ~^~)