Chapter 327 Balkan Situation (1)
"A butterfly in the tropical rainforest of the Amazon River Basin in South America occasionally flaps its wings, which can cause a tornado in Texas, USA two weeks later."
This is the famous theory proposed by American meteorologist Edward Lorenz, the "butterfly effect". The reason is that the movement of the butterfly's wings causes changes in the air system around it and produces weak airflow, which in turn causes corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems, thus causing a chain reaction, and ultimately leading to great changes in other systems.
In human history, the butterfly effect is even more common. A series of seemingly insignificant events are linked together, but they can often influence the course of history.
For example, the Balkan Peninsula in World War II.
Since the Turks crossed the Dardanelles and invaded Southeast Europe in 1352, the peoples of the Balkan Peninsula have been oppressed under the iron hoofs of foreign races for five centuries. In 1821, the Greek people first raised the banner of rebellion against the brutal rule of the Turks and received widespread sympathy and support from European countries. After nine years of fighting, Greece finally gained independence in 1830, and a gap was opened in Turkey's rule in the Balkans. Greece's independence played a good role in encouragement and demonstration. By the 1870s, the national liberation movement in the entire Balkan region was surging and received strong support from external forces. The rule of the Ottoman Empire collapsed in an instant, and Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania and other countries gained independence. Turkey, except for Istanbul and its surrounding areas, lost all its territories on the European continent. With the collapse of Turkey's rule in the Balkans, the forces of major European countries have been involved in this region, and those newly independent countries have also purposefully chosen a major country as their backer.
After the two Balkan Wars in 1912-1913, on the eve of the outbreak of the First World War, the Balkan countries, after a series of differentiation and combination, were divided into two camps like the European powers at the time: Serbia and Greece sided with the Allies, while Bulgaria leaned towards the Central Powers. The interference of the great powers in the Balkan Peninsula made the situation in the region complicated. Any seemingly careless accidental shooting would trigger a major crisis. The Balkan Peninsula had become the Achilles' heel of European geopolitics at this time. Some far-sighted politicians keenly observed this, and German Prime Minister Bismarck once pointed out incisively. "One day, the stupid things that happened in the Balkans will drag the whole of Europe into a war."
Sure enough, on June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, was assassinated in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia. The assassins were several Serbian radicals, which made the already very tense Austro-Serbian relations even worse. Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia and bombarded Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, on July 28, provoking the war. Serbia had the support of Russia, and Germany endorsed the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Later, Britain and France were also involved. What happened next is well known. As Bismarck predicted before his death, "stupid things led to a war." The First World War, which was called "the war to end all wars" at the time, broke out in full swing, and almost the entire European continent was dragged into a four-year-long battle.
20 years later, when Germany raided Poland in September 1939, Britain and France declared war on Germany, and World War II broke out, Italy wisely declared neutrality and waited for the outcome.
In June 1940, Germany's blitzkrieg in Western Europe was a huge success. The German army defeated France, a European military power, in just six weeks, and forced the Netherlands and Belgium to surrender, and drove nearly 300,000 British expeditionary forces back to the British Isles. At this juncture, Italy finally joined the war. Mussolini was jealous of the great success of the German army in Western Europe. He was determined to reproduce the glory of ancient Rome and turn the entire Mediterranean region into Italy's inner lake. Therefore, he ordered the Italian General Staff to formulate a plan to invade Greece.
On October 28, 1940, nearly 160,000 Italian troops crossed the border between Albania and Greece (Italy annexed Albania as early as 1939) and invaded Greece. At the beginning of the war, people generally believed that Greece, a small country with a population of only 7 million, was no match for Italy, which had a population of 45 million. However, surprisingly, the Greek army commanded by General Papagos fought extremely bravely, just like their Spartan ancestors who fought against the Persian invasion more than 2,000 years ago, repeating the glory of the Battle of Thermopylae in 480 BC. By the end of November, the Italian army was not only driven out of Greece, but was even in danger of losing Albania. However, with the arrival of winter, the temperature dropped sharply to minus 20 degrees Celsius, and the Greek army was forced to stop the offensive due to lack of supplies, thus saving the Italian army from collapse.
Italy's disastrous defeat in Greece made Mustache very angry. This was not because he sympathized with Italy's situation or understood Italy's territorial ambitions, but because Mussolini's reckless invasion of Greece broke the Balkans. The original complicated diplomatic balance in the region was like opening a Pandora's box, triggering a series of butterfly effects: Due to the invasion of the Italian army, Greece was forced to seek help from its traditional ally, the United Kingdom. The Royal Air Force first sent several Fighter and bomber squadrons were stationed in Greece to cheer them up. Although the number was small, this move aroused alarm in Germany, because Germany does not produce oil locally. Its most important overseas oil source is the Ploiesti oil field in Romania. The oil field is precisely within the combat radius of British Air Force bombers stationed in Greece, which makes Germany very worried about the safety of the oil field.
Since the air force was dispatched, the British Near East Army stationed in North Africa has also been continuously moving from Egypt to Greece. This has made the Germans realize that Greece, a "nuisance", must be dealt with as soon as possible, otherwise there will be endless troubles, which will affect the Axis powers in the future. Security of the Southeast European flank.
On April 6, 1941, Germany, Italy, and Hungary invaded Yugoslavia via separate routes. By April 17, all of Yugoslavia had fallen, and its territory was occupied by the four countries. Germany easily surrendered Yugoslavia in just 11 days, and the price paid was only 558 casualties and missing people. This battle fully demonstrated the power of the German blitzkrieg. power.
After defeating Yugoslavia, the German army continued to move south under the command of Marshal List. The German armed forces were far more powerful than Italy. The British and Greek coalition forces were no match for the well-trained German army. On April 24, the German army Capture Athens. By the beginning of May, the Axis forces occupied the Greek mainland, and the remaining British troops were forced to withdraw to Egypt via the Mediterranean. This was the third time in just one year that the British troops were driven out of the European continent. The first two were respectively In Norway and France, this was a fatal blow to the British, enough to humiliate them, but it was nothing compared to the two disastrous defeats the British army suffered a year later at Tobruk and Singapore. .
Throughout World War II, the British Army's performance was lackluster compared to the Royal Navy and Air Force, and it rarely achieved outstanding results whether it was fighting the Germans or the Japanese. Shortly after occupying mainland Greece, elite German paratroopers carried out the largest and most famous airborne operation on Crete during World War II. Just like the German airborne occupation of the Eben Emaar Fortress in Belgium a year ago, the heroic German paratroopers The British troops stationed on the island were defeated in a panic, and finally occupied Crete, the largest island in Greece, on May 25. At this point, the Axis Power Group completely controlled the entire Balkan Peninsula.
The German army's victory in the Balkans was jaw-dropping. It was a classic and brilliant blitzkrieg. The efficiency of the German war machine was fully revealed. However, the price the Germans paid for this was that "Operation Barbarossa" was forced to be postponed from its original schedule in May. The 15th was postponed to June 2. Judging from the future historical development process, this more than one month delay will be fatal.