Chapter 860 I Want to Build a 210,000-Story Mage Tower!
After optimizing the working methods, the progress of scanning and input has been rapid. The next evening, Grete sat in the center of the mage tower, frowning as he looked at the information pulled out by MOSS.
——The situation is very bad.
The April Flower has a displacement of 180 tons, a crew of 30, and 105 passengers. There were 26 crew members and 102 passengers on shore. The crew mortality rate was 13% and the passenger mortality rate was 3%.
The Silver Deer has a displacement of 150 tons, a crew of 25, and 58 passengers. There were 23 crew members and 54 passengers on shore. The crew mortality rate was 8% and the passenger mortality rate was 6.9%.
The Saint Marianne has a displacement of 300 tons, a crew of 48, and 287 passengers. There were 41 crew members and 244 passengers who arrived ashore. The crew mortality rate was 14.5% and the passenger mortality rate was 15%.
Brig, displacement 400 tons, crew of 58, and 450 passengers. 50 crew members landed, 332 passengers... The crew mortality rate was 13.7% and the passenger mortality rate was 26%.
All in all, crew mortality was relatively constant, between 10 and 15 percent. The mortality rate does not increase with the increase in the number of passengers. It is speculated that it is related to the wind and waves of sea navigation, distress during operation, etc.;
The passenger fatality rate has increased significantly as the number of passengers/tonage increases.
"MOSS, calculate the number of passengers/tonage and the passenger fatality rate of each cargo ship. Draw a scatter plot with the number of passengers/tonnage as the vertical axis and the passenger fatality rate as the horizontal axis."
"Boss, what is a scatter plot?"
"On the coordinate axis, mark the position of the corresponding data of each cargo ship. For example, the April Flower should be marked here..."
Grete used [Silent Phantom] to outline the coordinate axis, mentally calculated the number of passengers/ton, and clicked a little on the coordinate axis. MOSS was silent for about a second, and then responded:
"I understand, boss."
On the light screen, a coordinate axis that Gretel was familiar with opened up. X-axis, Y-axis, calibrate the values, and start applying black dots one by one. One for two, five for ten, twenty for thirty, fifty for...
The speed of growth will soon reach the point where trypophobia will cause goosebumps all over the body just by looking at it.
And these dense black spots, in the first quadrant of the coordinate axis, outline a giant python with its head raised upward.
Probably, maybe, almost, when the number of passengers/ton exceeds 0.9, the mortality rate begins to rise sharply. When the number of passengers/ton exceeds 1, the mortality rate stabilizes at more than 20%...
20%!
Grete once heard a member of the jury mention that during this great famine, approximately 200,000 people from the Kingdom of Kent would have to be relocated to the New World. And as for what Grete saw on Aiolan Island, the kind of densely packed transshipment conditions with everyone crowded in the bottom cabin...
At the very least, the ship Gretel took when he came back was less than 300 tons. As for the passengers crowded in the bottom cabin, a casual scan will tell that there are definitely more than 300 people.
You don’t need to calculate carefully to know that the number of passengers/tonnage must exceed 1.
——In other words, 20% of the 200,000 people and 200,000 starving victims will die on the two-month long journey one way!
Forty thousand people died!
Just thinking of this made Gretel shudder. Forty thousand people, a 20% mortality rate, if it can be reduced to 10%, or even to 5%...
Even if it dropped to 5%, in his concept, it was still outrageously high. What, 5% of people will die on a sea trip? The risk of this trip is too high and completely unacceptable!
However, even if it drops to 5%, 30,000 of these 40,000 people can survive.
——Saving one life is better than building a seven-level pagoda. This time, I, Wu Grete Nordmark Chau, will build a 210,000-story mage tower!
Of course, how to reduce the mortality rate depends on data. Gretel looked at the scatter plot carefully and was not very satisfied.
The giant python was dense in the middle, sparse and scattered around it, and densely covered with many black spots. Only the general trend could be seen. How low can the number of passengers/tonnage be reduced to reduce the fatality rate to 5%? 0.9? 0.8? Or 0.7?
——This requires more precise calculations.
——In other words, this scatter plot should be made into a fitting curve. A smooth curve is much easier to see clearly than a densely packed scatter plot with a lot of scattered dots floating around.
...It’s broken, how do you do the fitting curve? How should regression analysis be performed and which formula should be used?
I have learned this thing before, and I have used it in writing papers. The problem is that I don't use it much after work. I have to use it every time and go back to read the book on the spot. I’ve been traveling through time for a few years, I haven’t used it for a long time, and I kind of forgot about it…
Grete scratched his head, finally spread out his pen and paper, and honestly reviewed college mathematics and medical statistics. After struggling for a long time, I finally filtered out the required formulas, and then I spent endless time to teach MOSS how to understand——
After adjusting it several times, a smooth curve finally appeared on the light screen projected by MOSS.
"0.7..."
Gretel frowned and paced back and forth in front of the light screen with his hands behind his back. According to this curve, to reduce the fatality rate to 10%, the ratio of passengers/tons should be below 0.9; and if it is to be reduced to 5%, then the ratio must be below 0.7.
And if the ratio of the council's ships carrying disaster victims is generally above 1, it means that the council needs to pay an additional 50% in freight to transport these people. What is more troublesome than freight is transportation capacity——
There are only so many ships that can travel to the New World, and there are only so many captains and skilled sailors who can travel to the New World. Change, if it cannot be changed, the victims will not be transported in time and will be backlogged in the kingdom, and more additional problems will arise...
What else can be done?
Is there any way to reduce their mortality rate?
Grete unconsciously rubbed a logbook. Thanks to the regulations of Parliament, every person who dies on board must be examined by the ship's doctor, the cause of death must be recorded, and certified by the captain's signature.
This makes the cause of death in the logbook relatively reliable, at least it will not make unnecessary falsifications...
"MOSS, count the causes of death of all crew members and passengers, as well as the proportion of deaths caused by this factor." He took a long breath and ordered in a deep voice. MOSS fell silent for a long time before a light screen appeared:
"Fever, nervous fever, bilious fever, pleural fever, purulent fever, malignant fever, violent fever, relieving fever, acute fever, diarrhea, dysentery, worms, diarrhoea, dry abdominal pain..."
"Stop, stop, stop, stop!"
Gretel quickly stopped. Hey, different temples, different description methods and judgment ideas, as well as pharmacists, herbalists, barbers, carpenters, God knows who served as ship doctors, the records left behind really make people want to vomit!
"From fever to acute fever, everything is defined as fever. From diarrhea to dry abdominal pain, everything is defined as gastrointestinal disease." He ordered helplessly. Alas, despair, there is too little information, and I can only classify it simply like this...
MOSS buzzed for a while, the light screen shook, merged, and refreshed again. The cause of death that appeared this time finally made Grete feel a little more comfortable, and his blood pressure was no longer so high.
"Fever, gastrointestinal disease, respiratory disease, scurvy, drowning, fall, rebellion, other, unmarked..."
Gretel watched intently. In terms of overall death proportions, gastrointestinal diseases accounted for 28% and scurvy accounted for 15%, covering the top two causes of death.
"MOSS, then calculate the statistics based on the number of passengers/ton, every 0.1 increase. Statistics for each rank, different causes of death!"
This time, the data is extremely encouraging. When the number of passengers/ton reaches above 0.9, the probability of death from gastrointestinal diseases reaches 48%!
In other words, under such conditions, clean food and drinking water can be provided as much as possible, vegetables and sodium ascorbate can be supplied appropriately, and basic medicines can be provided if possible. In this way, the mortality rate can be reduced by an additional 63%!
In this way, the passenger fatality rate can be kept below 5%...and a full 30,000 people can be saved!
I have built this 210,000-story mage tower!
****
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1847 was a troubled year. That year, about 20% of people who immigrated to the United States due to famine died on the way or just after arriving. This means that 40,000 people died, and most of them were young and strong men. In comparison, when British ships carried African slaves to the United States in the 19th century, the mortality rate during the journey was only 9%.
——Excerpted from Rainbow over the Snowy Mountains' notes on "A Brief History of Race in America"
I...I don't know what to say...Should I say that the British are too ignorant, or should I say that the black slaves have too much vitality?