Chapter 220 Afghanistan Issue
Afghanistan has never been peaceful in modern times. The tragedy of Afghanistan lies in its geographical location, which is located on the main transportation routes of the east, west, south and north. Every powerful country wants to control this transportation route and make it its own territory.
The northern bear, with a large area of its territory in high latitudes, hopes to advance southward. Tsar Peter the Great once set a goal for his descendants: to advance southward to Constantinople and India. If you rule there, you rule the world! When Russia can freely enter the Indian Ocean, it can establish its military and political rule over the world!
In the second half of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, Tsarist Russia and Britain almost went to war over Afghanistan. After the end of World War II, the Soviet Union healed its wounds and began to look to the future. In the 1950s, Afghanistan and Pakistan had a serious dispute over the issue of Pashtunistan, and the two countries were on the verge of war. The Soviet Union found an opportunity and expressed its firm support for Afghanistan's position on this issue, pulling Afghanistan into the arms of the Soviet Union.
Unfortunately, although the relationship between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union entered a brief honeymoon period at that time, Afghanistan was not a country that could be easily manipulated. The distance between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union grew farther and farther, and now it has almost reached the point of war.
The Soviet Union planned a coup and wanted to support a puppet. However, it soon discovered that the situation in Afghanistan could not be solved by a puppet. The contradictions within Afghanistan were too complicated. Only the Soviet Union could occupy Afghanistan personally to settle it!
According to history, the real war will not start for another two years. But now, the shrewd politicians have begun to prepare for it.
But Andrei, who came from the future, knew that this was a bad move. Now that Andrei has been able to establish a relationship with the top leaders, the benefits and disadvantages must be made clear, even if it makes Andropov unhappy!
This was just a casual conversation, and it was not brought up for discussion at the forum. Andropov only used it to test Andrei's strategic insight, and he did not expect that Andrei would consider it more deeply.
"Now, our relationship with Afghanistan is a bit strained. The worsening situation in Afghanistan has attracted our attention. I think the situation in Afghanistan will definitely become increasingly unfavorable to us," said Andre.
Andropov was very satisfied. Although Andrei was in the Far East, he still focused his attention on more places, such as South Asia. Andrei had already noticed the problem in Afghanistan!
"Andrei, how do you think we should deal with the Afghan issue? If a situation arises that is unfavorable to us, should we use our military force to solve the Afghan issue, just like we do with the island countries now?" Andropov asked.
The Soviet Union successfully occupied northern Hokkaido, which made the Soviet top leaders very excited. Therefore, the military's intervention in Afghanistan's internal issues when necessary has begun to be considered within the top leadership.
"No, absolutely not." Andrei's words surprised Andropov.
"The situation in Afghanistan is different from that in the island countries," Andre said. "The Yamato people, the main ethnic group of the island countries, have a strong servile nature. As long as we scare them, they will obey us very much. You see, we have occupied Hokkaido for several months, and the islanders on our territory have honestly accepted our rule without a word. However, Afghanistan is different. There are many tribes in Afghanistan, and the contradictions are prominent. The largest Pashtun tribe does not even account for half of the country's population. Such a country is inherently unstable, and the people there are also naturally warlike. They will fight to the death in their own country, and will not succumb to foreign forces. If we use the same means as in Hokkaido to solve the Afghan problem, we will definitely fail."
Andrei spoke very confidently. After he finished speaking, he looked at Andropov. At this moment, the old man's face was uncertain.
We cannot use force to resolve the Afghan issue, otherwise we will fail!
If it was another person, a young man in his twenties, who talked big and said that the war in Afghanistan would be a failure, Andropov would definitely think that this person was crazy. The Soviet Union had tens of millions of troops! A force that made the whole world tremble. How could they not be able to conquer Afghanistan? Would they definitely fail?
However, the one who spoke was Andrei, this young man had already demonstrated amazing talent. In terms of tactics, he could fly fighter planes and participate in frontline air battles. In terms of strategy, his proposal to attack Hokkaido from Kushiro had proven to be the most correct choice, allowing the Soviet Union to occupy northern Hokkaido at the lowest cost!
Is it really that difficult to fight Afghanistan?
"The biggest factor limiting us is logistics." Seeing that Andropov disagreed, Andrei continued, "We are now attacking Hokkaido from the sea. The four eastern islands of Hokkaido, Sakhalin Island in the north, and the Primorsky Krai in the west are all our territories. It is relatively easy for us to attack from any direction. But what about Afghanistan? Pakistan is in the east, and Iran is in the west and south. We can only attack from the north, and there happens to be a mountainous area there. Mountainous areas are a good place for guerrilla warfare. As long as a small group of Afghans are active there, it will cause considerable trouble for our logistics supply. Air transport supply cannot provide enough supplies, which will greatly increase our combat costs."
The United States in later generations still had bases in Pakistan to use, but the Soviet Union could only attack from the north, where there was the long Hindu Kush Mountains. Due to logistics constraints, the Soviet army entering Afghanistan was always around 100,000 people. The huge military force could not bring out its advantages at all.
Andre knew that he had to try his best and not let this happen! Although his current strength was still very small, he had to do his best!
Convincing Andropov is the first step to reversing history. Ustinov and others all support this plan.
"Besides, if we want to go south, we don't necessarily have to go through Afghanistan." Andre said, "After all, we have three routes to choose from."
At the beginning, Peter the Great envisioned three routes for Russia to move south for his descendants: one was from the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait in Turkey to the Mediterranean; the second was from the South Caucasus through Iran to the Persian Gulf; and the third was from Central Asia through Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea.
The route through Afghanistan is the shortest, but also the most difficult.