Chapter 2476 How to End the War 1

"The military factors in this war are at most 50%, and the remaining 50% are economic and political factors. It is tantamount to wishful thinking to rely solely on military force to solve the war in the Pacific!" Saionji Gongwang's next words Not only did Yamamoto Gonbei and Shimamura Hayao feel dissatisfied and puzzled, but it also made Masaki Terauchi sitting opposite feel uncomfortable.

Although the navy and army are opposed to each other on many issues, they have always been fanatical believers in military power and believe that they can solve all problems with the swords in their hands. But now, when Xiyuan Temple Gongwang said these words, it undoubtedly devalued the value of the sabers in their hands! It's just that because of the coercion of Xiyuanji Gongwang, no one has had an attack for the time being.

"I am very disappointed in you. The power of the military is getting bigger and bigger, and its intentions are getting bigger and bigger, but I can't see anyone who can inherit my mantle, whether it is among the Chinese or the political party. I am very worried about this. I am really worried that the country's government will become a tool of the military. The military is the backbone of the country, but the military cannot control the government. If you people can have some political and strategic literacy, then our communication will be very easy. , but you didn’t.”

"Even in the German Empire, which has the strongest military overtones among the great powers, their soldiers strictly abide by their own rules - not to participate too much in politics. Although their leaders are proficient in military affairs, they can handle military affairs and Political relations. They are fully aware that the military is just a political tool. They will not start a war for the sake of war, but will consider how the war starts, how it proceeds and how it ends from a political perspective."

"But in your eyes, I don't see that kind of thinking that is unique to politicians. All your efforts to end the war are centered around military. This cannot be wrong. After all, most wars are carried out by military means. It's over. But this does not include the war we are facing now." Xiyuanji Gongwang's words were full of deep disappointment and dissatisfaction.

"Your Excellency Yamamoto, you are actually very pessimistic about the current war situation, because from a military perspective you can't find an idea that can ultimately make the Americans give up. So, in the end, you chose this idea that made the Americans feel that the war was victorious. The price is too high and you are forced to give up such an excuse, am I right? In our previous conversations, you have made good battle plans, but the results of each battle, even according to the best estimates, still cannot be given to the United States. People are weak, so you put forward the alternative idea of ​​looking for opportunities to fight the Americans. However, this just exposed your weak nature!"

"I'm not very proficient in military affairs, but I know something about it, and my staff will also provide some suggestions. They are all retired senior navy and army officials who are proficient in military operations at the operational and tactical levels. They have always given me this One opinion is that accidents are most likely to occur in small-scale battles, while the element of surprise will be severely reduced in larger wars. Because according to mathematical principles, when the sample becomes larger and larger, it is in your favor The accidental events and the accidental events that are not conducive to you will eventually balance out, so in a large-scale decisive battle, victory will be more likely to be the stronger side!" Saionji said.

Does this statement make sense? There must be some. For example, in the Battle of Denmark in World War II in history, the battleship Prince of Wales and the battlecruiser Hood fought against the battleship Bismarck and the heavy cruiser Prinz Eugen. In terms of strength, the British obviously have an absolute advantage. However, due to errors in target judgment, the Bismarck, the object that should receive the most attention, was ignored.

In addition, Hood was shot into the soul again, so in the end, the British navy collapsed instantly. This is a typical example of the so-called accidental decision of this small-scale battle.

But in a large-scale battle, this kind of thing will almost never happen, because it is impossible for you to be lucky all the time and just take advantage without suffering a loss, right? This is just like tossing a coin. The probabilities of both sides are actually equal. The more times you flip a coin, the closer the probabilities are to 1 to 1. Therefore, if analyzed from a rational perspective, if the two sides do not make major strategic mistakes, then the Japanese may still achieve some incredible exchange ratios in small-scale battles. If it is a large-scale battle, then the goddess of victory will ultimately prefer To the stronger side...

"Furthermore, Yamamoto-kun also ignored an issue in your remarks, or you mentioned this issue in your internal discussions, but you deliberately concealed it when communicating with me. That is, if after a large-scale decisive battle, the Imperial Navy obtains We have gained an advantage, but what if Virtue wants to continue fighting?”

"Of course, you can say that the huge pressure of defeat will force Virtue to give up. But I want to ask now, if various unfavorable factors do not make Virtue give up, then is there anything the Imperial Navy can do? Can you see Japan and Virtue? There is a huge power gap between them. Is it not clear that Germany and Germany have their own advantages? They are 200% confident that if both sides continue to consume, Japan will be dead! Therefore, the defeat of a certain battle will not shake the United States. Am I right about a person’s determination to persevere?” Saionji asked.

"But you also said that the Germans do not want Japan to perish in this war. You said that this is not in Germany's interest." Yamamoto Gonbei said impatiently. Although he did not admit it, he knew that Saionji Temple That's right. From a military perspective, Japan really has no chance! From a military perspective alone, as long as Germany and Germany want to fight, and there are no other foreign factors, Japan will eventually kneel down. The final battle of the combined fleet may be in Kalimantan, maybe in the Philippines, or even on the mainland, but One thing is certain, the other side is determined to fight, and Japan will die!

Although many people have mentioned before that the international political environment and the interests of the great powers prevent Japan from dying this time, for example, Germany needs Japan to contain the United States. Britain also needed Japanese power to suppress rebellions in its colonies in Southeast Asia and South Asia. The United States is not really prepared to fight a war that is too protracted. But that being said, Yamamoto Gonbei doesn't know exactly how to operate it, because he only understands military affairs and doesn't understand international grand strategy.

Therefore, all his plans only mention how to use military means to end the war. When he encounters a problem that even he cannot convince himself of, he makes up some seemingly reasonable excuses to round off his plans. You can't make a plan but fail in the end, right? So what else are you planning?

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